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Sequential change point tests based on U‐statistics

机译:基于 U 统计量的顺序变化点检验

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摘要

Abstract We propose a general framework of sequential testing procedures based on U‐statistics which contains as an example a sequential CUSUM test based on differences in mean but also includes a robust sequential Wilcoxon change point procedure. Within this framework, we consider several monitoring schemes that take different observations into account to make a decision at a given time point. Unlike the originally proposed scheme that takes all observations of the monitoring period into account, we also consider a modified moving‐sum‐version as well as a version of a Page‐monitoring scheme. The latter behave almost as good for early changes while being advantageous for later changes. For all proposed procedures we provide the limit distribution under the null hypothesis of no change which yields the threshold to control the global false alarm rate asymptotically. Furthermore, we show that the proposed tests have asymptotic power one. In a simulation study we compare the performance of the sequential procedures via their empirical size, power and detection delay, which is further illustrated by means of a temperature data set.
机译:摘要 我们提出了一个基于U统计量的序贯检验程序的一般框架,该框架包括一个基于均值差异的序贯CUSUM检验,但也包括一个鲁棒的序贯Wilcoxon变化点程序。在这个框架内,我们考虑了几种监测方案,这些方案考虑了不同的观察结果,以便在给定的时间点做出决定。与最初提出的方案不同,该方案考虑了监测期的所有观测结果,我们还考虑了修改后的移动和版本以及页面监测方案的版本。后者在早期更改中表现得几乎一样好,同时对后期更改具有优势。对于所有建议的程序,我们提供了无变化的零假设下的极限分布,从而产生了渐近控制全局误报率的阈值。此外,我们证明了所提出的测试具有渐近幂 1。在仿真研究中,我们通过经验尺寸、功率和检测延迟来比较顺序程序的性能,并通过温度数据集进一步说明。

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