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Generalized Zero-Adjusted Models to Predict Medical Expenditures

机译:用于预测医疗支出的广义零调整模型

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In healthcare research, medical expenditure data for the elderly are typically semicontinuous and right-skewed, which involve a point mass at zero and may exhibit heteroscedasticity. The problem of a substantial proportion of zero values prevents traditional regression techniques based on the Gaussian, gamma, or inverse Gaussian distribution, which may lead to understanding the standard errors of the parameters and overestimating their significance. A common way to counter the problem is using zero-adjusted models. However, due to the right-skewness in the nonzeros' response, conventional zero-adjusted models such as zero-adjusted gamma, zero-adjusted Inverse Gaussian, and classic Tobit may not perform well. Here, we firstly generalize those three types of the conventional zero-adjusted model to solve the problem of right-skewness in health care. The generalized zero-adjusted models are very flexible and include the zero-adjusted Weibull, zero-adjusted gamma, zero-adjusted inverse Gaussian, and classic Tobit models as their special cases. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, we find that, according to the AIC, SBC, and deviance criteria, the zero-adjusted generalized gamma model is the best one of these generalized models to predict the odds of zero cost accurately. In order to depict the predictors affecting the amount expenditure, we further discuss the situations where the mean, dispersion of a nonzero amount expenditure and model the probability of a zero amount of ZAGG in terms of predictor variables using suitable link functions, respectively. Our analysis shows that age, health, chronic diseases, household income, and residence are the main factors influencing the medical expenditure for the elderly, but the insurance is not significant. To the best of our knowledge, little study focused on these situations, and this is the first time.
机译:在医疗保健研究中,老年人的医疗支出数据通常是半连续和右偏的,涉及零点质量,并可能表现出异方差性。大量零值的问题阻碍了基于高斯分布、伽马分布或逆高斯分布的传统回归技术,这可能导致理解参数的标准误差并高估其重要性。解决该问题的常用方法是使用零调整模型。然而,由于非零响应的右偏度,传统的零点调整模型(如零点调整伽马模型、零点调整逆高斯模型和经典 Tobit)可能表现不佳。在这里,我们首先推广了这三种类型的常规零调整模型,以解决医疗保健中的右偏度问题。广义的零点调整模型非常灵活,包括零点调整的 Weibull、零调整的 gamma、零调整的逆高斯和经典的 Tobit 模型作为其特例。利用中国纵向健康长寿调查发现,根据AIC、SBC和偏差准则,零调整广义伽马模型是这些广义模型中准确预测零成本几率的最佳模型之一。为了描述影响金额支出的预测因子,我们进一步讨论了非零金额支出的均值、离散度和使用合适的链接函数分别根据预测变量对 ZAGG 零金额的概率进行建模的情况。我们的分析表明,年龄、健康状况、慢性病、家庭收入和居住地是影响老年人医疗支出的主要因素,但保险并不显著。据我们所知,很少有研究关注这些情况,这是第一次。

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