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Impact of COVID-19 on latent emissiveness of residents in China: Based on the X-12-ARIMA additive seasonal adjustment model

机译:COVID-19对中国居民潜伏辐射的影响——基于X-12-ARIMA加性季节调整模型

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摘要

With Census X-12 model and ARIMA model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the latent emissiveness of Chinese residents which happened at the end of 2019. The results show that: First, during this epidemic period, the overall latent emissiveness index of Chinese residents decreased by 53.51, and showed certain spatial difference, and it is not the area with the largest number of confirmed cases, and the area with the most serious epidemic situation, the greater the loss of latent emissiveness. Second, the residents' willingness to travel has a strong fit with the development stage of the epidemic, but there is also a certain lag. In other words, the more severe the epidemic, the lower the willingness of residents to travel; When the epidemic is under control, people's willingness to travel will rise again, but the rise time will be delayed. Third, compared with the period of SARS in 2003, the impact of COVID-19 on China residents' latent emissiveness is greater and more profound, three times as much as that of the SARS period. In view of the serious impact of the epidemic on Chinese residents' willingness to travel, finally, several development suggestions are put forward on how to re-enhance people's travel information and revitalize the tourism industry in the process of normalizing the epidemic prevention and control.
机译:本文利用人口普查X-12模型和ARIMA模型,定量分析了2019年底发生的COVID-19疫情对中国居民潜在辐射的影响。结果表明:(1)在本次疫情期间,我国居民整体潜伏发射指数下降了53.51%,并呈现出一定的空间差异,且不是确诊病例最多的地区,而是疫情最严重的地区,潜伏发射的损失越大。其次,居民出行意愿与疫情发展阶段有较强的契合度,但也存在一定的滞后性。换言之,疫情越严重,居民出行意愿越低;当疫情得到控制时,人们的出行意愿会再次上升,但上升时间会延迟。第三,与2003年SARS时期相比,COVID-19对中国居民潜伏辐射的影响更大、更深远,是SARS时期的3倍。针对疫情对中国居民旅游意愿的严重影响,最后,就如何在疫情防控常态化过程中,如何重新提升人民旅游信息、振兴旅游产业提出了若干发展建议。

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