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Hybrid LSTM Self-Attention Mechanism Model for Forecasting the Reform of Scientific Research in Morocco

机译:混合LSTM自注意力机制模型预测摩洛哥科研改革

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摘要

Education is the cultivation of people to promote and guarantee the development of society. Education reforms can play a vital role in the development of a country. However, it is crucial to continually monitor the educational model's performance by forecasting the outcome's progress. Machine learning-based models are currently a hot topic in improving the forecasting research area. Forecasting models can help to analyse the impact of future outcomes by showing yearly trends. For this study, we developed a hybrid, forecasting time-series model by long short-term memory (LSTM) network and self-attention mechanism (SAM) to monitor Morocco's educational reform. We analysed six universities' performance and provided a prediction model to evaluate the best-performing university's performance after implementing the latest reform, i.e., from 2015-2030. We forecasted the six universities' research outcomes and tested our proposed methodology's accuracy against other time-series models. Results show that our model performs better for predicting research outcomes. The percentage increase in university performance after nine years is discussed to help predict the best-performing university. Our proposed algorithm accuracy and performance are better than other algorithms like LSTM and RNN.
机译:教育是培养人,促进和保障社会的发展。教育改革可以在一个国家的发展中发挥至关重要的作用。然而,通过预测结果的进展来持续监控教育模式的表现至关重要。基于机器学习的模型是目前改进预测研究领域的热门话题。预测模型可以通过显示年度趋势来帮助分析未来结果的影响。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种基于长短期记忆 (LSTM) 网络和自注意力机制 (SAM) 的混合预测时间序列模型来监测摩洛哥的教育改革。我们分析了六所大学的表现,并提供了一个预测模型来评估实施最新改革后(即2015-2030年)表现最好的大学的表现。我们预测了六所大学的研究成果,并测试了我们提出的方法与其他时间序列模型的准确性。结果表明,该模型在预测研究成果方面表现更好。讨论了九年后大学表现的百分比增长,以帮助预测表现最好的大学。我们提出的算法的准确性和性能优于LSTM和RNN等其他算法。

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