A stochastic approach to consequence tree analysis

摘要

AbstractIn this paper a stochastic approach to consequence tree analysis is considered. A consequence tree is a set of events logically combined by OR and AND connections that occur in sequence, some being prerequisites for others. Consequence trees are applicable to failure propagation in plants. Facilitating paths and inhibiting cuts are defined and considered. The distribution of the time the system needs to reach a certain top event is obtained. Probability weights are defined that can be used to obtain the weakest link in the consequence tree.