Spatial Modeling of the Range and Long-Term Climatogenic Dynamics of Ambrosia L. Species in the Caucasus

摘要

The main limiting factors for living of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. in the Caucasus are the incoming solar energy flux in January (5250-5950 kJ m(-2) day(-1)) and slope (0 degrees-17.5 degrees). The limiting factors for A. trifida L. are wind speed in February (2-2.4 m/s) and the incoming solar energy flux in December (4400-4800 kJ m(-2) day(-1)). In accordance with the predicted trends of climate change by 2050, it is possible to expect the expansion of the total area of potentially suitable for the species habitats by a factor of 1.95 (A. artemisiifolia) and 9.78 (A. trifida) (20 295.29 and 34817.82 km(2)). The area of optimal habitats may increase by 2.48 and 11.78 times, respectively (9932.73 and 18 914.11 km(2)), including the mountainous territoties.