Transition of Chaotic Motion to a Limit Cycle by Intervention of Economic Policy: An Empirical Analysis in Agriculture

摘要

This paper investigates the transition of dynamics observed in an actual real agricultural economic dataset. Lyapunov spectrum analysis is conducted on the data to distinguish deterministic chaos and the limit cycle. Chaotic and periodic oscillation were identified before and after the second oil crisis, respectively. The statitonarity of the time series is investigated using recurrence plots. This shows that government intervention might reduce market instability by removing a chaotic market's long-term unpredictability.