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Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for one‐dimensional diffusions observed on a fine grid

机译:在精细网格上观察到的一维扩散的近似最大似然估计

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摘要

Abstract We consider a one‐dimensional stochastic differential equation that is observed on a fine grid of equally spaced time points. A novel approach for approximating the transition density of the stochastic differential equation is presented, which is based on an It?‐Taylor expansion of the sample path, combined with an application of the so‐called ?‐expansion. The resulting approximation is economical with respect to the number of terms needed to achieve a given level of accuracy in a high‐frequency sampling framework. This method of density approximation leads to a closed‐form approximate likelihood function from which an approximate maximum likelihood estimator may be calculated numerically. A detailed theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator is provided and it is shown that it compares favorably to the Gaussian likelihood‐based estimator and does an excellent job of approximating the exact, but usually intractable, maximum likelihood estimator. Numerical simulations indicate that the exact and our approximate maximum likelihood estimator tend to be close, and the latter performs very well relative to other approximate methods in the literature in terms of speed, accuracy, and ease of implementation.
机译:摘要 我们考虑了一个在等距时间点的精细网格上观察到的一维随机微分方程。提出了一种近似随机微分方程转移密度的新方法,该方法基于样本路径的It?-Taylor展开,并结合所谓的?-展开的应用。对于在高频采样框架中达到给定精度水平所需的项数而言,得到的近似值是经济的。这种密度近似方法导致了一个闭合形式的近似似然函数,从中可以数值计算近似最大似然估计器。对所提出的估计器进行了详细的理论分析,结果表明,它与基于高斯似然的估计器相比具有优势,并且在逼近精确但通常难以处理的最大似然器方面做得非常出色。数值模拟表明,精确估计器和我们的近似最大似然估计器趋于接近,后者在速度、准确性和易用性方面相对于文献中的其他近似方法表现良好。

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