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Exploring patterns of demand in bike sharing systems via replicated point process models

机译:通过复制的点过程模型探索共享单车系统的需求模式

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Bike sharing systems are very popular in large cities around the world. The user checks out a bicycle at a nearby station and returns it in a station nearby the destination. For smooth functioning of the system, both bicycles and slots should be available at every station. Otherwise, users have to look for other nearby stations and this will make them avoid using the system. The flow of bikes to and from a station will not follow a similar pattern. This will cause imbalances in the spatial distribution of bikes. There are many ways of managing this problem, such as shifting the bikes from one station to another by trucks and locating stations by analyzing the demand, but all of this depends on understanding the spatiotemporal bike demand. This article shows that bike demand at each station can be modeled as temporal point process considering bike checkout times as random events. The data on Divvy Systems of Chicago is publicly available and can be analyzed to understand the demand pattern. The data analyzed pertains to the period between April 1 and November 30, 2016. This date range was selected since bike usage reduces considerably during the winter. During this period, there were 3,068,211 bike trips and 458 active bike stations. Depending on the location, there is variation in demand. It varied from 29 annual trips in station 386 in the south side to 85,314 annual trips for station 35 at the Navy Pier. Demand for stations with large counts can be estimated by kernel smoothing or other density estimation methods. However, for stations with low daily counts, this method will not work well. This article presents a method to overcome this problem by borrowing data across different days. This can be used to study spatial correlations between stations and thereby clusters can be identified.
机译:自行车共享系统在世界各地的大城市都非常受欢迎。用户在附近的车站借出自行车,然后在目的地附近的车站归还。为了系统的平稳运行,每个车站都应该有自行车和停车位。否则,用户必须寻找附近的其他车站,这将使他们避免使用该系统。自行车进出车站的流量不会遵循类似的模式。这将导致自行车空间分布的不平衡。有很多方法可以解决这个问题,例如用卡车将自行车从一个站点转移到另一个站点,以及通过分析需求来定位站点,但所有这些都取决于对时空自行车需求的理解。本文表明,可以将每个站点的自行车需求建模为时间点过程,并将自行车结账时间视为随机事件。芝加哥 Divvy Systems 的数据是公开的,可以进行分析以了解需求模式。分析的数据涉及 2016 年 4 月 1 日至 11 月 30 日期间。之所以选择这个日期范围,是因为冬季自行车的使用量大大减少。在此期间,有 3,068,211 次自行车出行和 458 个活跃的自行车站。根据地点的不同,需求会有所不同。从南侧 386 号站的 29 次年度旅行到海军码头 35 号站的 85,314 次年度旅行不等。对具有大量计数的站点的需求可以通过核平滑或其他密度估计方法进行估计。但是,对于每日计数较低的站点,此方法效果不佳。本文介绍了一种通过借用不同日期的数据来克服这个问题的方法。这可用于研究站点之间的空间相关性,从而可以识别聚类。

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