abstract_textpThe influence of the prevailing weather situation on the temporal evolution and geographical distribution of intense rainfall is studied, as a potential tool to improve rainfall prediction. A classification scheme of the atmospheric circulation over the east Mediterranean territory is used for the analysis. The study area is the Sterea Hellas region (central Greece) with an area of about 25,000 km(2). Daily data from 71 rain gages and hourly data from three rain recorders over a 20 year period are used. From these data sets, the intense rainfall events were extracted and analyzed. Several empirical and statistical methods (also including the available tools of a Geographical Information System) are used for the analysis and comparison of rainfall distribution both in time and in space. The analysis shows that the contribution of the concept of weather types to the quantitative point rainfall prediction in short timescale is small, and only the estimation of the probability of occurrence of an intense event is feasible. On the contrary, the relation between the spatial distribution of rainfall and the atmospheric circulation patterns is significant and may be used for improving the forecasting of the geographical distribution of rainfall./p/abstract_text
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