Kieras and Polson (1985) proposed an approach for making quantitative predictions on ease of learning and ease of use of a system, based on a production system version of the goals, operators, methods, and selection rules (GOMS) model of Card, Moran, and Newel1 (1983). This article describes the principles for constructing such models and obtaining predictions of learning and execution time. A production rule model for a simulated text editor is described in detail and is compared to experimental data on learning and performance. The model accounted well for both learning and execution time and for the details of the increase in speed with practice. The relationship between the performance model and the Keystroke-Level Model of Card et al. (1983) is discussed. The results provide strong support for the original proposal that production rule models can make quantitative predictions for both ease of learning and ease of use.
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