Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Identification of Extreme Events

摘要

Tropical cyclones impact continental and island lands annually, so attention to the adverse effects of associated winds and rains is focused on damage to human settlements, growing areas, infrastructure, loss of human life, and ecosystems. Defining the concept of extreme events is complex since it depends on the focus with which it is approached. The study aimed to provide a long-term and large-scale Serie (168 years) concerning cyclonic activity and characterization of extreme cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin, considering as a reference the World Meteorological definition Organization. The trend of extreme events in the 1851-2019 period was calculated from the records of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship and the statistical method "Exceeding a relative threshold," from the variables: "maximum speed of sustained winds" and "minimum atmospheric pressure." The thresholds considered were a) 10 and 90; b) 1 and 99; and c) extraordinary maximum threshold of 0.1 and 99.9 (percentiles). The cyclone trajectories were classified based on a) did not landfall; b) They impacted continental and insular lands; c) They impacted Mexico; and d) They impacted the Yucatan Peninsula. The results showed that of the total of 2,220 events registered, 59% (n=l,302) touched land. Considering the laxest thresholds (10 and 90 percentiles), the number of extreme events identified forthe North Atlantic was 5.95% (n=132), while for the Yucatan Peninsula, it was 0.72% (n=16). The findings do not show a significant trend of increasing cyclone numbers. As for intensity (magnitude), a slight increase in hurricanes in categories H4 and H5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale has been observed in the last two decades.