1. Crude trade is projected to rise by 2.2% to 40.4m bpd in 2023, with firm demand in Asia driving import growth, while rising oil production in the US, Norway and Brazil supports strong exports. 2. In tonne-miles terms, global crude trade is expected to grow by a firm 6.4%, largely owing to continued Russian- related trade flow shifts (notably, Russian shipments to China reached a record 1.8m bpd in June). 3. Russian exports fell 7% m-o-m to c.3.1m bpd in July, amid production cuts and rising domestic refinery runs. Russia also recently announced a 0.3m bpd cut to exports in September. Elsewhere, Iranian crude exports rose to over 1.4m bpd in July, up from around 1m bpd at the start of 2023, party owing to increased operational capacity at the Kharg Island export terminal. Brazilian exports rose 35% m-o-m to 1.9m bpd in June, up 68% y-o-y (despite firm domestic refinery utilisation), with shipments to China accounting for 85% of the increase.
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