Reduced Russian gas supplies to Europe, against the background of war in Ukraine since February, have imparted a new urgency to EU supply diversifcation eforts. Azerbaijan has positioned itself as part of the long-term solution. Azeri president Ilham Aliyev and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reached an initial agreement last month on increasing gas exports to Europe from Azerbaijan to at least 20bn m~3/yr by 2027, from the 11bn-12bn m~3 expected this year. The country almost certainly has enough reserves to nearly double supplies to Europe, but provided no detail on the projects that will produce this gas. Whether Azerbaijan can deliver by 2027 is another question.
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