Adaptive hybrid fuzzy rule-based system approach for modeling and predicting urban traffic flow

摘要

This paper presents an adaptive hybrid fuzzy rule-based system (FRBS) approach for the modeling and short-term forecasting of traffic flow in urban arterial networks. Such an approach possesses the advantage of suitably addressing data imprecision and uncertainty, and it enables the incorporation of expert's knowledge on local traffic conditions within the model structure. The model employs univariate and multivariate data structures and uses a Genetic Algorithm for the offline and online tuning of the FRBS membership functions according to the prevailing traffic conditions. The results obtained from the online application of the proposed FRBS are found to overperform those of the offline application and conventional statistical techniques, when modeling both univariate and multivariate traffic data corresponding to a real signalized urban arterial corridor.