Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated, beyond anyone’s pre-24 February imagination, EU plans to end its dependence on Russian oil and gas. But Moscow’s response to the unprecedented fnancial sanctions that the west has imposed on Russia — brinksmanship demanding that European buyers accede to President Vladimir Putin’s decree insisting on rouble payments for Russian gas — raises the real prospect of a disruption to supplies that could have a catastrophic impact on the EU economy, overwhelming short-term diversifcation plans and having a profound but as yet unknowable impact on longer-term energy transition plans.
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