China's position in the global economy

摘要

In 2022 China's economy grew at an estimated 3, down precipitously from 8.1 in 2021 and representing one of the worst performances on record. The Chinese economy, the world's second largest, was dragged down by sweeping lockdowns and other effects of the government's disruptive zero-covid strategy and by a sharp downturn in the property market. The sudden lifting of pandemic restrictions in December 2022 will result in improved data in 2023. Foreign businesses have benefited from an incremental loosening of investment restrictions in China and continue to enjoy opportunities in consumer-facing sectors, supported by the country's rising middle class. However, some emerging sectors-particularly in information technology-will remain closed to foreign participation. US-China relations remain strained, and this is unlikely to reverse anytime soon. Tensions will spill over into areas beyond trade, including investment and intellectual property rights and will risk further bifurcating global value chains. EIU's growth expectations for China over the next decade remain relatively pessimistic, as issues including worsening productivity, a shrinking working-age population and geopolitics constrain potential growth.