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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, D. Atmospheres: JGR >An Evaluation of CMIP6 Models in Representing the Biophysical Effects of Deforestation With Satellite‐Based Observations
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An Evaluation of CMIP6 Models in Representing the Biophysical Effects of Deforestation With Satellite‐Based Observations

机译:An Evaluation of CMIP6 Models in Representing the Biophysical Effects of Deforestation With Satellite‐Based Observations

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Abstract Deforestation can impact surface temperature via biophysical processes. Earth system models (ESMs) are commonly used tools to examine biophysical effects of deforestation, but the model capacity to represent deforestation effects remains unclear. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the performance of four ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing deforestation effects with a satellite‐based benchmark. The results show that the ESMs can basically capture the sign of the temperature response but over‐ or underestimate the magnitude. Such biases are the consequence of biases in the simulated responses of albedo and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Specifically, the ESMs consistently overestimate the albedo response under snow‐covered conditions, for example, in the northern latitudes and in the cold season. The ESMs fail to fully reproduce the observed responses of sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the model bias depends on the model, region and season. The ESMs and observations even disagree on the sign of responses of sensible and latent heat fluxes in some cases. An attribution analysis further shows that biases in the simulated surface temperature response mainly result from biases related to the response of the surface energy partitioning. Biases related to the albedo response only play an important role under snow‐covered conditions. Given these model biases, we highlight that when the CMIP6 models are used to investigate deforestation effects, the simulated result should be interpreted with caution. Moreover, the identified model deficiency shown here also has implications for model improvement.
机译:摘要森林砍伐会影响表面温度通过生物物理过程。系统模型(esm)是常用的工具研究生物物理森林砍伐的影响,但是该模型代表森林砍伐的能力影响尚不清楚。全面评估四个的性能esm的耦合模型相互比较的项目6级(CMIP6)代表森林砍伐影响基于一个卫星的基准。结果表明,esm可以捕获温度的符号但在列车或响应低估了级。偏见在模拟反应的结果反照率和明智的和潜热通量。具体来说,esm一贯高估反照率的响应下的雪覆盖条件,例如,在北方纬度,在寒冷的季节。完全再现观察反应明智的潜热通量和模型偏差取决于模型、区域和季节。esm和观察甚至不同意签署明智的反应和潜热通量在某些情况下。显示模拟表面的偏见温度反应主要是由于偏见与表面能的反应有关分区。反应只扮演着重要的角色雪覆盖的条件。偏见,我们强调,当CMIP6模型用于调查森林砍伐的影响,模拟结果进行解释时应谨慎。这里显示缺陷也有影响模型的改进。

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