Sensitivity of Nocturnal Warm Sector Rainfall Simulation to the Configuration of Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions: A Case Study in Southern China Based on the Operational TRAMS Model

摘要

Abstract A heavy nocturnal warm sector rainfall occurred over the western coastal region of South China in June 2020, of which the precipitation magnitude was seriously underestimated by the operational TRAMS (Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model System) model. In this study, by improving the configuration of initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) in offline nesting, the simulation of the convection initiation (CI) process can be well improved. The CI simulation is found to be sensitive to the vertical resolution in ICs in this case. When the low‐level vertical resolution of ICs is increased, the nocturnal near‐surface cold layer caused by inland mountains can be resolved better, which is necessary to form the convergence line along the coastline. Another important impact of increasing the vertical resolution of ICs is the successful simulation of horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) over the northern South China Sea. The HCRs apparently increase the depth of the warm‐moist marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ), and finally lead to the CI along the coastline. The increased vertical resolutions of LBCs can reduce the discontinuity of simulated moist tongue across the southern lateral boundary of the TRAMS model, which provides more moisture for the warm sector rainfall through MBLJ. LBCs with Higher temporal frequency help to alleviate the western position bias of rain belt by reducing the temporal interpolation error. Our study highlights the importance of finer ICs and LBCs in offline nesting for regional operational NWP systems in the South China region.