The good news is that fertilizer prices, while still high, have fallen significantly from their 2022 peaks (see figure 1). As with the global trade in food crops, that rise and fall is a complex story of shifting supplies and trade linkages. At the time of the Russian invasion, fertilizer prices were already at historically high levels. They had been rising since late 2020 due to several factors. Fertilizer demand, which declined during COVID 19 lockdowns, rebounded in late 2020/2021 as restrictions were lifted and crop prices rose. On the supply side, increases in prices of natural gas and coal-key feedstocks and energy sources in fertilizer production-as well as some reductions in production capacity also added upward pressure on prices.
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