Off balance

摘要

Monthly forecasts are in, and the outlook does not look good for producers. Recently launched non-Opec projects are increasing output, while more are due on stream over the next 6-12 months. Demand growth is slowing in key markets. And now wild card elements within Opec - namely Libya and Nigeria - may be approaching an end to their long-standing problems with production disruption. Oil may now be in surplus until at least mid-2017 and potentially all the way until 2018, and the chances of a break above $50/bl are becoming slimmer.