Reports of the end of the commodities super cycle have been greatly exaggerated. It has not yet even peaked. Stum- bling Chinese growth and talk of an end to the US Federal Reserve's programme of quantitative easing have prompted commodity firms to argue that the cycle is over. They mean that the first part of the super cycle - the rally - may be ending, after about a decade. But forecasting a peak, or even recognising when it happens, is notoriously difficult. Smaller cycles within the super cycle can be deceptive, such as the commodity price crash during the Great Recession.
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