Chinese product exports will rise sharply this year if the country’s refining sector sticks to ambitious plans to increase throughputs. Crude imports may rise by a “conservative” 9pc this year, an internal document circulated by leading economic planning agency the NDRC predicts. This would boost imports by 500,000 b/d in 2014, and would be the highest annual increase since 2010. Plans by the main state-owned oil companies and smaller refiners are even larger. If fully realised, they would mean 800,000 b/d of extra throughputs, which would sharply increase product exports and depress refining margins throughout Asia-Pacific. But GDP growth is projected to slow this year (AGM, 24 January, p4). And political opposition to China becoming a swing products exporter is likely to force some refiners to scale back their plans.
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