The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence

摘要

Abstract This study attempts to estimate the impact of demographic changes on house prices, according to several fixed effects regressions, based on the panel data of 31 administrative units in China covering 16 years (2002–2017). Analyzing the data by region and province, we found that the old-age dependency ratio coefficient was positive: An increase by 1 led to a rise in housing prices by 5.51 when other variables were controlled. Meanwhile, the child dependency ratio coefficient was negative: An increase by 1 led to a decrease in housing prices by 3 when other variables were controlled. A robustness test with dummy variables further verified our findings. On the other hand, regional economic development could also affect the influence of age factors on housing prices. In underdeveloped areas, changes in the age structure of a population have less impact on housing prices. We also found that mobility greatly impacts housing prices. An interaction analysis of age structures, spatial migrations, cultural habits, the hukou system, and other variables is rarely mentioned in the literature, which might otherwise help to supplement previously conducted studies.