Snow Hydrology in the Upper Yellow River Basin Under Climate Change: A Land Surface Modeling Perspective

摘要

Snow has been widely recognized as a crucial component of water resources and is expected to be vulnerable to climate change in cold and mountainous regions. Here we projected climate change impacts on snow hydrology in the upper Yellow River (UYR) basin through a distributed biosphere hydrological model with improved snow physics, forced with Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project climate model outputs under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) during the period of 1996-2025. The results indicated that the climate in the UYR basin is turning warmer and wetter. In this context,more precipitation would occur as rain (snow-to-precipitation ratio would decrease accordingly). The total runoff generation would increase slightly with increased precipitation. The simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent would decrease by 33 and 19 per 1 °C warming under the RCP4.5. These declined rates would further enlarge under the RCP8.5. Accordingly, the multimodel ensemble mean snowmelt-to-runoff ratio decreases by 9 and 7 per 1 °C warming under the two emission scenarios. The projected responses of snow hydrology (e.g., snow depth, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt) to the changing climate in the UYR basin are consistent among different climate models and RCP scenarios, which would provide valuable insights for water resources management, environmental protection, and climate change adaption in high mountainous basins and their downstream regions.