Demand recovery to support price uptrend, oversupply risk still looming

摘要

Short supply and recovering demand for Mn alloys in Japan resulted in higher quotes in December. SiMn (65 Mn, 16 Si) quotes are now at $935/t CIF versus $860/t CIF in November. Those for HC FeMn (75 Mn) increased by $55/t on the month to $910/t CIF on average. Shortage of alloys for prompt shipment can continue in January-February due to logistics problems. Therefore, traditional suppliers to Asia will keep passing their costs onto buyers. On the other hand, exports to other regions, particularly Europe, become less attractive due to multiplying freight costs. Transportation from Malaysia to Europe got twice as costly at $95?100/t, minimizing the profits of Malaysian sellers on this destination. Thus, the sales are highly likely to be redirected to Asia, resulting in excessive supply by end-February - early March, in which case it will be difficult to raise the prices.