Modeling And Forecasting The Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Cases In Trat, Thailand

摘要

The object of presented research was to fit an appropriate seasonal ARIMA model. and to forecast the dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in Trat. Thailand. The parameters of the model were estimated by p=1. d=0. q=0. P=2. D=1, Q=2 and S=12 with no constant or ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,2)_(12). Then the performance of model was measured with 12.96 of root mean square error (RMSE). Also, the correlation coefficient (R) between the observed and forecasted cases was 0.934 with p-value=0.000.