Temporal trend in surface water resources in Tianjin in the Haihe River Basin, China (pages 2141–2151)

摘要

Considering the highly stochastic nature of the hydrological process, wavelet transform was used to analyse the characteristics, trends and causes of variations in annual run-off (1917–2006) into Tianjin in the Haihe River Basin. Run-off was steadily declining due to climate change and human activity and a significant decrease in run-off along the time series was discovered around the 1960s; however, the change in precipitation was insignificant. The time series of run-off was heavily influenced by a nonlinear feature and mainly influenced by the natural climate before the 1960s, but after the 1970s the change remained steady, with an annual run-off that fluctuated between 0D2 and 48D4 mm and was maintained at a low level (9D3 mm). The main cause of the run-off decline in the 1960s was that more than 1900 reservoirs with a total holding capacity of up to 83 mm were constructed in the upper and middle reaches, which controlled 85% of the total run-off. These projects have played an active role in the reservoir action and water conservation since they were implemented. At the beginning of the 1980s, the demand for water resources increased with the rapid growth of the population and the large-scale development of industry and agriculture in the Haihe River Basin, which caused a reduction in run-off into Tianjin. Overall, the hydrological effects of water storage projects regulating river run-off were beneficial to flood control, but might cause a serious reduction in river run-off into Tianjin and the lower reaches of the basin. In addition, a decrease in annual precipitation and changes in temperature in Northern China have also had an adverse effect on natural run-off, which caused a greater decline in water resources, but this did not have a powerful influence on the overall decline in the run-off. Copyright ? 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.