China PE headwinds'Common prosperity'is a long-term game changer that will lead to lower rates of growth for China. For HDPE, look for 4 growth in 2022 after a 7 decline in 2021

摘要

The coming collapse of China, as I’ve discussed before, is like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil-perpetually 10 years away. However, what seems evident is that over the next six to 18 months, as China transitions to what I believe will be a successful new and much more sustainable economic growth model, we are going to see a great deal of petrochemicals market volatility. This could be a great time for traders as sentiment swings from negative to positive and back again. Underlying all these are lower growth prospects at least in the short term. I see China sticking to its real estate deleveraging guns over the next six to 18 months as it takes further air out of the real estate bubble. Given that the property sector accounts for an astonishing 29% of Chinese GDP, the highest percentage in global economic history, this is bound to have a deflationary short-term effect on demand for finished goods and services directly and indirectly linked to real estate.