Pooled frequency analysis for intensity-duration-frequency curve estimation

摘要

Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used in the design of urban infrastructure. Their estimation is based on rainfall frequency analysis, usually performed on rainfall records from a single gauged station. However, available at-site record length is often too short to provide accurate estimates for long return periods. In the present study, a general framework for pooled rainfall frequency analysis based on the index-event model is proposed for IDF estimation at gauged stations. Pooling group formation is defined by the region of influence approach on the basis of the geographical distance similarity measure. Several pooled approaches are defined and evaluated by a procedure through which quantile estimation and uncertainty are assessed. Alternate approaches for the definition of a pooling group are based on different criteria regarding initial pooling group size (and the relationship between size and return period), approaches for assessing pooling group homogeneity, and the use of macroregions in pooling group formation. The proposed framework is applied to identify the preferred approach for pooled rainfall intensity frequency analysis in Canada. Pooled approaches are found to provide more precise estimates than the at-site approach, especially for long return periods. Pooled parent distribution selection supported the use of the generalized extreme value distribution across the country. Recommendations for pooling group formation include increasing the pooling group size with increases in return period and identifying an appropriate trade-off between pooling group homogeneity and size for long return periods.