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Structural break, US financial crisis and macroeconomic time series: evidence from BRICS economies

机译:结构性破坏,美国金融危机和宏观经济时间序列:证据来自金砖四国经济体

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This paper analyses the overall trend of key macroeconomic variables of BRICS nations impacted by the US financial crises (2008-2009) through structural break analysis for period 2000-2013. Dummy variable model using exogenous break-date examines intercept and trend shift simultaneously in a single linear equation. The analysis statistically establishes that different variable of the countries endured varying level (severity) of the crisis impacted. Results found both immediate and lagged manifestation of the crisis impact on variables. The study's exclusivity lies in exposing the exact period of crisis impact on each variable and also in capturing their exact trend movements. The paper contributes in isolating sensitive variables (sensitive/resilient to exogenous shocks) for further research on crises.
机译:本文分析了总体趋势的关键金砖国家的宏观经济变量的影响由美国金融危机(2008 - 2009)结构分解分析期间2000 - 2013。使用外源性break-date哑变量模型同时检查拦截和趋势转变在一个线性方程。统计上建立不同的变量的国家经历了不同级别(严重程度)危机的影响。直接和滞后危机的表现对变量的影响。在暴露的危机影响的时期每个变量和捕捉他们的准确运动的趋势。隔离敏感变量(敏感/弹性外生冲击)对危机的进一步研究。

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