首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, D. Atmospheres: JGR >Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4
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Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

机译:降雨及其季节性在亚马逊21世纪的耦合模型对IPCC的事

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摘要

The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Ni?o-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.
机译:的全球气候模型政府间气候变化专门委员会第四评估报告(IPCC AR4)预测非常亚马逊不同降雨量的变化在全球气候的sr aib场景改变。年降雨量的增加,三种模型预测降雨量的减少,其他三个模型预测没有显著的变化亚马逊降雨。模型。倪?并在大西洋北部热带气候变暖这似乎提高大气沉降从而减少在亚马逊云。太阳表面的合成增加明智的吸收导致更强的表面热通量,从而降低相对湿度表面的空气。和湿季降水和表面的长度潜热通量。降雨会导致干燥土壤中随后的旱季,进而可以推迟从干到湿季的过渡。GISS-ER预测海温变暖走软热带西太平洋和南部增加水分运输和大西洋因此降雨在亚马逊。亚马逊和Nordeste最强降雨增加时,合成更高的土壤表面水分支持更高的潜热在干燥和过渡季节和通量导致早期潮湿季节发病。

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