Predicting the response of seven Asian glaciers to future climate scenarios using a simple linear glacier model

摘要

Observations from seven Central Asian glaciers (35–55°N; 70–95°E) are used, together with regional temperature data, to infer uncertain parameters for a simple linear model of the glacier length variations. The glacier model is based on first order glacier dynamics and requires the knowledge of reference states of forcing and glacier perturbation magnitude. An adjoint-based variational method is used to optimally determine the glacier reference states in 1900 and the uncertain glacier model parameters. The simple glacier model is then used to estimate the glacier length variations until 2060 using regional temperature projections from an ensemble of climate model simulations for a future climate change scenario (SRES A2). For the period 2000–2060, all glaciers are projected to experience substantial further shrinkage, especially those with gentle slopes (e.g., Glacier Chogo Lungma retreats ～4 km). Although nearly one-third of the year 2000 length will be reduced for some small glaciers, the existence of the glaciers studied here is not threatened by year 2060. The differences between the individual glacier responses are large. No straightforward relationship is found between glacier size and the projected fractional change of its length.