What flare and CME parameters control the occurrence of solar proton events?

摘要

In this study we examine the occurrence probabilities of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending on both flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters: flare peak flux, longitude, impulsive time, CME linear speed, and angular width. For this we use the NOAA SPEs, their associated X-ray flares, and CME from 1997 to 2011. We divide the data into 16 subgroups according to the flare and CME parameters and estimate the SPE probabilities for the subgroups. The three highest probabilities are found for the following subgroups: (1) fast full halo (55.3%) and fast partial halo (42.9%) CMEs associated with strong flares from the western region and (2) slow full halo CMEs associated with strong flares from the western region (31.6%). It is noted that the events whose SPE probabilities are nearly 0% belong to the following subgroups: (1) slow and fast partial halo CMEs from the eastern region, (2) slow partial halo CMEs from the western region, and (3) slow full halo CMEs from the eastern region. These results show that important parameters to control SPE occurrences are CME linear speed, angular width, and source longitude, which can be understood by the piston-driven shock formation of fast CMEs and magnetic field connectivity from the source site to the Earth. It is also shown that when the subgroups are separately considered by flare impulsive time and source longitude, the correlation coefficients between the observed and the predicted SPE peak fluxes are greatly improved.