Prediction Uncertainties beyond the Range of Experience: A Case Study in Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosion Experiments

摘要

Scientists often predict physical outcomes, e.g., experimental results, with the assistance of computer codes that, at their best, only coarsely approximate reality. Coarse predictions are challenging in large part due to the multitude of seemingly arbitrary yet consequential decisions that must be made such as choice of relevant data, calibration of code parameters, and construction of empirical discrepancy forms. In this paper, we present a case study in the context of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosion experiments where extrapolative predictions are needed with quantified uncertainties. The purpose of this case study is to illustrate relevant statistical methods, as applied to ICF model fitting and prediction, to document the numerous decisions that must be made in the prediction pipeline, to extend a complex example in extrapolation to the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community, and to reflect on the challenges we encountered supporting extrapolations with imperfect models and thereby recommend several future research directions. We end with a discussion about the UQ community's role in less than ideal predictive scenarios like our ICF exercise.