Political/commercial background

摘要

EIU believes that the military will retain political dominance in 2022-25. Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former junta leader and head of the Phalang Pracharat party, will serve out his four-year term as prime minister, ending in 2023, and will be re-elected. Student-led protests will return in 2022 as the economy struggles to recover from the negative impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, but this will not result in the removal of Prayuth's government or democratic reform that would loosen the tight grip on power held by royalists and the military. The social unrest will not disrupt the basic functioning of public institutions and the government will not be forced to dissolve parliament prematurely or offer major political concessions to appease the protesters. In terms of day-to-day governance, stability will be maintained, largely because of the continued participation of most opposition parties. In the more immediate term, an emergency decree that has been in force since March 2020, in response to the pandemic, will cement Prayuth's hold on power, enabling him to exercise sweeping powers unilaterally, until at least the end of the pandemic.