Political/commercial background

摘要

The Economist Intelligence Unit considers that the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak and diminished oil rents-resulting from existing US sanctions and low international oil prices-present hefty challenges for the survival of the military regime led by President Nicolas Maduro of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela. Social unrest is prevalent and protests could intensify in the coming months owing to severe fuel shortages. Despite these compounding social and economic shocks, we expect Mr Maduro to retain power throughout 2020, ruling over what is becoming a much less populous and much poorer country. Mr Maduro has two main factors working in his favour. First, the opposition led by the head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido, has lost the momentum that it held in 2019. Secondly, the regime retains strict control over the military, the police and paramilitary forces. Although the risks to our forecasts are very high, we assume that this control-together with the complexity of the security apparatus and the recurrent purges within it-will allow the regime to manage internal dissent.