Findings from Helmut Schmidt University Advance Knowledge in Risk and Financial Management (Analysis and Forecasting of Risk in Count Processes)

摘要

2021 MAY 05 (NewsRx) - By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Disease Prevention Daily - Data detailed on risk and financial management have been presented. According to news reporting from Hamburg, Germany, by NewsRx journalists, research stated, "Risk measures are commonly used to prepare for a prospective occurrence of an adverse event." Financial supporters for this research include Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from Helmut Schmidt University: "If we are concerned with discrete risk phenomena such as counts of natural disasters, counts of infections by a serious disease, or counts of certain economic events, then the required risk forecasts are to be computed for an underlying count process. In practice, however, the discrete nature of count data is sometimes ignored and risk forecasts are calculated based on Gaussian time series models. But even if methods from count time series analysis are used in an adequate manner, the performance of risk forecasting is affected by estimation uncertainty as well as certain discreteness phenomena.