Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

The rouble weakened noticeably in August for a number of reasons. Among the systemic ones are the deterioration of prospects of fighting against the global COVID-19 pandemic in the next months, and particularly the statistics of a second wave of coronavirus cases in Europe, as well as the failure to introduce the complete second stimulus package in the US due to political obstacles, with a slimmed-down relief package being introduced by the President's executive order instead. An economic recovery slowed down in developed countries after a major rebound registered in the first half of summer. The volume of fiscal rule-based foreign currency sales kept declining in Russia, while the sale of the remaining foreign currency raised from the sale of Sberbank was postponed.