Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

The rouble exchange rate was influenced by diverse factors in July, including a reduction in regular foreign currency sales by the Central Bank of Russia on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, oil price fluctuations, expectations of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and political events at the beginning of the month etc. In the beginning, the overvalued rouble expectedly weakened, but slightly sharper than predicted. Then, the currency recovered some losses owing to a combination of several factors. According to the recent news, the Ministry of Finance is going to cut budget expenditures in 2021-2023, which will also ease the burden on the rouble exchange rate as compared to the earlier planned expenses.