Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

The epidemic outbreak in Europe and the US, large-scale quarantine measures all over the world, a slump in financial markets and the oil wars have naturally exerted a heavy pressure on the rouble rate. Brent oil price is predicted to drop to $20/bbl by the second half of June. Meanwhile, shale oil supply will be slow to decrease for months. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to start reducing production at least until May. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia are capable of maintaining both budget spendings and the rouble rate for a long time pouring the reserves onto the currency market. Without the injections, the rouble exchange rate could reach $1 = RUB 100 by the middle of the year provided oil prices continue decreasing.