Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

Tensions around Iran, fairly high oil prices and the policy of central banks supported the rouble in January. There are no major risks for the exchange rate in the forecast period, though the new government is likely to raise actual spending (including both the budget and sovereign funds), so the Russian currency may weaken by RUB 0.4?0.5 against the US dollar as compared with our forecast.