Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

The rouble exchange rate is influenced by opposing trends – a plunge in oil prices, yet another deterioration of US-Russia relations, ongoing sanction pressure, the effects of the lira devaluation (which erodes investors' interest in developing markets) and expectations of a third wave of the pandemic in a number of countries on the one hand and the moderate nature of new sanctions, somewhat better prospects of the Nord Stream 2 project and growing optimism about the recovery of the global economy, in part owing to incentive programmes in the US on the other hand.