COMMENTARY

摘要

In Tables 1 and 2 the supply/demand balance for alumina is analysed. For the historical period the production of primary aluminium is used to derive an estimate of real consumption of metallurgical (smelter-grade) alumina. This is related to data on alumina production in order to calculate the apparent change in stocks. For the future period, the forecast of aluminium production from our report on primary aluminium is used to derive metallurgical alumina consumption in Table 3, to which is added a forecast of demand for non-metallurgical aluminas. The level of future alumina production, as forecast from Table 4, is used and an implied level of stock change is derived. If this implied stock change is more than can be accommodated within the policies of alumina plants and smelters, there will be an imbalance between alumina demand and supply, indicating that changes will be required to alumina production in order to balance the market.