COMMENTARY/Alumina Short Term--Demand and Supply

摘要

In Tables 1 and 2 the supply/demand balance for alumina is analysed. For the historical period the production of primary aluminium is used to derive an estimate of real consumption of metallurgical (smelter-grade) alumina. This is related to data on alumina production in order to calculate the apparent change in stocks. For the future period, the forecast of aluminium production from our report on primary aluminium is used to derive metallurgical alumina consumption in Table 3, to which is added a forecast of demand for non-metallurgical aluminas. The level of future alumina production, as forecast from Table 4, is used and an implied level of stock change is derived. In our last report (August 2007) we expected that the spot alumina market would tighten in the very short term because of the impact of supply problems, caused by the hurricane in Jamaica, while demand remained strong, but that beyond the immediate future spot prices would begin to fall steadily. In the event metallurgical alumina consumption was much higher than expected because of continued very strong metal production in China. Alumina production, on the other hand, was significantly less than expected because of production problems not only in Jamaica but also in Guinea and Australia and slower start of production at new capacity at Vedanta in India and in China due mainly to problems of bauxite supply. As a result alumina stocks fell sharply. This did not affect spot prices in the third quarter, but created an increase in spot prices in October and November 2007.