Alumina Short Term - Demand and Supply

摘要

In Tables 1 and 2 the supply/demand balance for alumina is analysed. For the historical period the production of primary aluminium is used to derive an estimate of real consumption of metallurgical (smelter-grade) alumina. This is related to data on alumina production in order to calculate the apparent change in stocks. For the future period, the forecast of aluminium production from our report on primary aluminium is used to derive metallurgical alumina consumption in Table 3, to which is added a forecast of demand for non-metallurgical aluminas. The level of future alumina production, as forecast from Table 4, is used and an implied level of stock change is derived. In our last report (May 2007) we expected that the spot alumina market would ease slightly as production exceeded consumption, with spot prices falling later in 2007. In the event metallurgical alumina consumption was higher than expected because of very strong metal production in China. Alumina production was again much larger than expected because of a further rapid increase in alumina production China. As a result alumina stocks rose more than expected, but spot prices were strong in the range of 350 dollars.