Comparative Study of Bayesian Information Borrowing Methods in Oncology Clinical Trials

摘要

PURPOSE With deeper insight into precision medicine, more innovative oncology trial designs have been proposed to contribute to the characteristics of novel antitumor drugs. Bayesian information borrowing is an indispensable part of these designs, which shows great advantages in improving the efficiency of clinical trials. Bayesian methods provide an effective framework when incorporating information. However, the key point lies in how to choose an appropriate method for complex oncology clinical trials. METHODS We divided the borrowing information scenarios into concurrent and nonconcurrent scenarios according to whether the data to be borrowed are observed at the same time as in the current trial or not. Then, we provided an overview of the methods in each scenario. Performance comparison of different methods is carried out with regard to the type I error and power. RESULTS As demonstrated by the simulation results in each borrowing scenario, the Bayesian hierarchical model and its extensions are more appropriate for concurrent borrowing. The simulation results demonstrate that the Bayesian hierarchical model shows great advantages when the arms are homogeneous. However, such a method should be adopted with caution when heterogeneity exists. We recommend the other methods, considering heterogeneity. Borrow information from informative priors is more suggested for nonconcurrent borrowing scenarios. Multisource exchangeability models are more suitable for multiple historical trials, while meta-analytic-predictive prior should be carefully applied. CONCLUSION Bayesian information borrowing is useful and can improve the efficiency of clinical trial designs. However, we should carefully choose an appropriate information borrowing method when facing a practical innovative oncology trial, as an appropriate method is essential to provide ideal design performance.