Russia: consumption forecast

摘要

There are high risks of Russia’s economy recession. The adverse factors are toughening sanc?tions, weakening global demand for Russian exports, growth of the VAT and the Central Bank’skey rate, low solvency of population and rouble devaluation. Infrastructure construction will notsupport the economy next year, because major projects have been completed. The approvedprogramme on infrastructure development will not make up for reduced metal consumption inhousing construction. In 2019, the key projects of this programme will be under discussion, sothey will not influence consumption of flats until 2020. Despite governmental support to producersof vehicles, downfall of solvent demand for cars will lead to reduction of production, resultingin lower demand for flats. Consumption of strip will be affected badly, because producers oflarge-diameter pipes have completed deliveries to large-pipeline projects.