Steel market trends in Russia and Ukraine

摘要

This year, steel production in Russia will drop by 1.1% to 71.3 million t as the rise in EAF steel output (up?0.8%) will not offset the decrease in BOF steel production (down 1.9%) even despite the new producer – Tula Steel – coming to the market. Production will decrease at all major holding companies but EVRAZ that will restore output thanks to completion of a four-month repair at the BF of EVRAZ ZSMK in December 2018. In 2020, overall steel production in Russia may increase to 72 million t thanks to the growth in semis segment. Ukraine's steel production will grow at all mills in 2019 except for Evraz DMZ (BF?overhaul) and Elektrostal Kurakhovo (idle since December 2018). ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih will account for most of the increase, restoring production after irregular operations last year. Besides, Alchevsk Iron and Steel Works located on the uncontrolled territory of Ukraine may show a substantial increase in output against a low comparison base (the facility was restarted in May 2018). Considering steel production estimates at the mills from the uncontrolled territories, overall steel production in Ukraine will rise by 9% y-o-y to 25.4 million t this year. In 2020, it may grow further by 3% to 26.1 million t.