Steel market trends in Russia and Ukraine

摘要

Despite the arrival of a new producer – Tula-Stal – steel output in Russia will fall by 1.9% to 70.8 million t this year. Production will decrease in all steel segments except for EAF steel (with Abinsk, Amursteel, REMZ expected to step up the output). NLMK will post the biggest decrease due to reconstruction of two converters set to be finished in 2020. Next year, the aggregate steel production in Russia will recover to 72.8 million t thanks to a rise in semis output. In Ukraine, steel production will grow almost at all mills in 2019 except DMZ (due to ongoing BF repair) and Elektrostal Kurakhovo that operates at reduced capacity on a lack of export orders. The major increase is expected at ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and Ilyich Steel Works. Besides, Alchevsk Iron and Steel Works and Yenakieve Steel located on the uncontrolled territory of Ukraine may show a substantial increase in output. Considering steel production estimates at the mills in the uncontrolled territories, overall steel production in Ukraine will rise by 9% y-o-y to 25.2 million t this year. In 2020, it may grow further by 2.5% to 25.9 million t.